Does your church view giving as “uncontrollable” and expenses as “controllable”? Are you focused on managing spending while overlooking your ability to influence giving? In this blog, we’ll delve into the power of influence and explore the science behind forecasting your annual giving and how these strategic decisions can help you better predict and enhance giving trends.

Working with thousands of churches has given MortarStone valuable insight into how churches forecast giving, as well as the tools and time they invest to feel “confident” in their predictions. A recent survey of MortarStone users revealed the following:

• One-third of respondents reported spending excessive time trying to build a budget based on giving.
• When asked to rate their satisfaction with forecasting their annual budget on a scale of 1-5, 53% rated it a 3.
• 69% admitted they were only “fairly” or “not confident” in explaining changes in giving from previous periods or against the budget.

These findings suggest that while most respondents feel relatively comfortable setting annual budgets, they struggle to explain shifts in giving. Why? For many churches, analyzing financial data is both time-consuming and complex, making it difficult to load and interpret results. As a result, many rely on intuition rather than data-driven insights when forecasting and setting their budgets.

What’s the solution? Data-driven assumptions. 

Winning (successful) or losing (unsuccessful) requires you to know 3 things:

1. Where are you NOW?
2. Where you SHOULD BE now?
3. Where are you GOING?

MortarStone leverages historical trends to forecast potential outcomes. Predictive analytics not only aids in developing your annual budget but also delivers valuable insights throughout the year, helping you understand why your church may not be meeting expected goals. This feature offers church leaders a turnkey solution for budget planning while equipping them with data-driven insights to respond effectively when giving falls short.

Join us for our next webinar to learn more about our BRAND NEW MortarStone Budgeting tool that will help you quickly track where giving falls in comparison to your annual budget and how small changes can impact the trajectory of your giving.  Register Here

In the meantime: 

Identify Key Indicators and Giving Segments

Segment your givers into four key groups: New Givers, Lapsed Givers, Core Givers, and Top Givers. Analyze how much giving comes from each group to better understand your financial landscape.

Prioritize Your Top Givers

If less than 30% of your givers support the majority of your annual giving, your organization could be at risk of a giving deficit. Develop strategies that encourage generosity and create a structured plan to communicate with and express gratitude to your Top Givers.

Assess Discipleship Needs

Once you’ve segmented your givers, determine which groups need additional financial discipleship. How large is your New Giver and Lapsed Giver demographic? If these numbers are increasing, it may be time to implement financial discipleship initiatives to foster sustained generosity.

Once you’ve identified these data sets, you’ll be better equipped to tell the story of where your annual giving should land for the next year and the steps necessary to ensure that there is not a lapse in giving and budget.